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বাজার পূর্বাভাস (০৬-০২-২০১১)
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গত কয়েকদিনের বাজার পরিস্থিতি দেখে আগামীকালের বাজার সম্পর্কে নিশ্চিত করে কিছু বলা যাচ্ছে না। ব্যাংকগুলো আগামী ৭ তারিখ থেকে ডিভিডেন্ড ঘোষণা শুরু করবে। ৭ তারিখ এনবিএল এবং ৮ তারিখ এমটিবিএল এর ঘোষণা আসার কথা। লভ্যাংশ প্রদানের ইতিহাস দেখলে আমরা দেখবো  এনবিএল সবসময় ভালো ডিভিডেন্ড দিয়ে আসছে। এমটিবিএল এর সে রকম ভালো ডিভিডেন্ড দেওয়ার রেকর্ড নেই। তাই এমটিবিএল এর ঘোষণা বাজারকে প্রভাবিত করতে পারবে বলে মনে হয় না। তবে এনবিএল এবারও ভালো লভ্যাংশ দেবে আশা করা যায়। লভ্যাংশ প্রদানের বিষয়টি বিনিয়োগকারীদের মধ্যে আস্থার সৃষ্টি করতে পারলে বাজার কালকে কিছুটা স্থিতিশীল হতে পারে। আর তা যদি না পারে তাহলে বাজার আবারো বেশ  নিম্নমুখী হতে পারে। প্রথম ঘন্টায় বাজার যদি ৫০ পয়েন্ট ধরে রাখতে না পারে তাহলে বাজারের নিম্নমুখী প্রবনতা ঠেকানো কঠিন হবে।  প্রাতিষ্ঠানিক বিনিয়োগকারীদের নিষ্কৃয়তা বাজারকে আবারো অনিশ্চয়তার মধ্যে ফেলবে বলে মনে হচ্ছে। বাজারে তারল্য সংকট দিন দিন প্রকট হচ্ছে। ব্যাংক গুলো আমানত ও এফডিআর এর উপর সুদের হার বাড়িয়েছে। শেয়ারবাজারের এই টালমাটাল অবস্থায় বাজার যদি নিম্নমূখী হয়, তবে বাজার থেকে আরো কিছু টাকা চলে যাবে যা বাজারের পতনকে আরো ত্বরান্বিত করবে। বাজারে দীর্ঘস্থায়ী মন্দার আলামত দেখা যাচ্ছে।

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Sir
Can he have a list of 5-10 best for share for now to invest...We do have list of 20 bets shares of DSE but can we have another list where we will get share we can invest for now......

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Originally Posted by Ahmed Safkat:
Sir
Can he have a list of 5-10 best for share for now to invest...We do have list of 20 bets shares of DSE but can we have another list where we will get share we can invest for now......

Please go to this link:

http://apps.facebook.com/facebook_forums/top10shares-2645/

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thanks taj vai .taj vai please bolben padma oil kemon hobe. amar 1000 ase@915 kore kena.

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Originally Posted by Marufuzzaman Dany:
thanks taj vai

Welcome

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Originally Posted by Marufuzzaman Dany:
thanks taj vai .taj vai please bolben padma oil kemon hobe. amar 1000 ase@915 kore kena.

It is bearish now. It will take long time to touch your buy price. The market shows bearish in near future and price may go down to 600. Buy 2 times than your present stake. Then you can regain your buy price with in a very short time. Also look for bottom

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taj bhai apnar protidiner bajar purbavash ami pori. apnar shuchintito lekhar jonno apnake oshonkho dhonnobad. kintu last 1 week theke apnar purbavash porerdiner market er shathe miltesena. ghotona ki?

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Originally Posted by বন্ধুত্ব চিরদিনের:
taj bhai apnar protidiner bajar purbavash ami pori. apnar shuchintito lekhar jonno apnake oshonkho dhonnobad. kintu last 1 week theke apnar purbavash porerdiner market er shathe miltesena. ghotona ki?

I normally use analytical tools to forecast. The tools combined our investment attitude and behavior together. Last week,  2 days market activities were  not according to my forecast. I am satisfied if at least 80% time forecast is correct.

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তাজ ভাই,
আপনাকে অনেক ধন্যবাদ আমাদের মতো স্বল্প জ্ঞান সম্পন্ন মানুষগুলোকে পূর্বাভাস দিয়ে সাহায্য করার জন্য। You are really very good in both TA & FA.
I have a little knowledge in Technical Analysis. Sometimes it becomes very tough to predict the market. I hope i will get some help from you when i am in trouble.
My little knowledge says that tomorrow we have a bearish market. I am also in a fear that is market may crash once again. please say something regarding my concern.

Thank You once again.

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Originally Posted by Reefat Zaman Shourov:
তাজ ভাই,
আপনাকে অনেক ধন্যবাদ আমাদের মতো স্বল্প জ্ঞান সম্পন্ন মানুষগুলোকে পূর্বাভাস দিয়ে সাহায্য করার জন্য। You are really very good in both TA & FA.
I have a little knowledge in Technical Analysis. Sometimes it becomes very tough to predict the market. I hope i will get some help from you when i am in trouble.
My little knowledge says that tomorrow we have a bearish market. I am also in a fear that is market may crash once again. please say something regarding my concern.

Thank You once again.

I am also not very much optimistic about tomorrow's market. My 80% support is to the down trend. But I have calculated some abnormal market behavior on thursday. Let me tell you.......

At 1420, index falls 230 points. Suddenly huge quantity of buy order came out and index regained 42  points and closes 188 points down. What's the reason behind? I guess, general Investors did not bought it. Then who bought it? What is his intention to buy at the dead down?

I could not get the answer. But at last one point hit me. Did the guy bought a huge quantity to take the advantage of NBL and MTBL declaration?
May be, If it is true market will be artificially stable for the next 2-3 days. But reaching to 5600 level is the ultimate destiny of this market. Lets see, how much time the market take to reach there.

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Originally Posted by Reefat Zaman Shourov:
তাজ ভাই,
আপনাকে অনেক ধন্যবাদ আমাদের মতো স্বল্প জ্ঞান সম্পন্ন মানুষগুলোকে পূর্বাভাস দিয়ে সাহায্য করার জন্য। You are really very good in both TA & FA.
I have a little knowledge in Technical Analysis. Sometimes it becomes very tough to predict the market. I hope i will get some help from you when i am in trouble.
My little knowledge says that tomorrow we have a bearish market. I am also in a fear that is market may crash once again. please say something regarding my concern.

Thank You once again.

I am also not very much optimistic about tomorrow's market. My 80% support is to the down trend. But I have calculated some abnormal market behavior on thursday. Let me tell you.......

At 1420, index falls 230 points. Suddenly huge quantity of buy order came out and index regained 42  points and closes 188 points down. What's the reason behind? I guess, general Investors did not bought it. Then who bought it? What is his intention to buy at the dead down?

I could not get the answer. But at last one point hit me. Did the guy bought a huge quantity to take the advantage of NBL and MTBL declaration?
May be, If it is true market will be artificially stable for the next 2-3 days. But reaching to 5600 level is the ultimate destiny of this market. Lets see, how much time the market take to reach there.

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Taj bhai, most of the share's candlestick is near to the upper band of the bollinger band and the candlesticks are also saying it may take a bearish pattern. most of the candlesticks are long black line. but NBL may rise tomorrow as its 8212700 shares are blocked since they havent get their maturity though NBL has touched its bollinger band and its candlestick pattern indicates a reversal.

Why are you saying the index will be 5600 ? will it be 5600 or 6000 ? i tihnk 6000 ! please explain. i could not get you !!
in my opinion if the index become 6300 then can break the 200 days wma then it may be 8000. but if the index breaks 6300 it will be 5300.

Am i right ? please let me know ! I am new in technical analysis ! so become confused !

Thanks 4 ur contribution !

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Originally Posted by Reefat Zaman Shourov:
Taj bhai, most of the share's candlestick is near to the upper band of the bollinger band and the candlesticks are also saying it may take a bearish pattern. most of the candlesticks are long black line. but NBL may rise tomorrow as its 8212700 shares are blocked since they havent get their maturity though NBL has touched its bollinger band and its candlestick pattern indicates a reversal.

Why are you saying the index will be 5600 ? will it be 5600 or 6000 ? i tihnk 6000 ! please explain. i could not get you !!
in my opinion if the index become 6300 then can break the 200 days wma then it may be 8000. but if the index breaks 6300 it will be 5300.

Am i right ? please let me know ! I am new in technical analysis ! so become confused !

Thanks 4 ur contribution !

Yes brother, you are absolutely right. As per fibo retracement we find the support line at 6300. If 6300 line  breaks it will further go down to nearly 5300. If support line breaks at 6300 it will not go straight down to 5300, There will be some resistence in between. I calculated it on average.

I think you got my point.

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First of all i am not a good analyzer so pardon me if i am saying anything wrong.The thing is our market is facing a difficult time since December but more or less all 1stICB, 2ndICB- 8thICB they have increased even when our market was in a very very difficult situation ... what is the reason behind this???

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Originally Posted by Ahmed Safkat:
First of all i am not a good analyzer so pardon me if i am saying anything wrong.The thing is our market is facing a difficult time since December but more or less all 1stICB, 2ndICB- 8thICB they have increased even when our market was in a very very difficult situation ... what is the reason behind this???

If you see the HY report, you will find they have comparatively better than the previous year. This is the posssible reason to grow.