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What's Happening In Egypt?
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What's Happening In Egypt?
02/03/2011 9:30 am

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What's going on, what will result, and do you think it'll affect us?

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02/04/2011 2:29 am

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I will give my over simplification of an answer as I see it, I don't want to post the 32 page report that I have already written, giving my hypothesis of what has happened and where it could going. Instead I will give what I think is the most likely.

What is going on?

The protests started peaceful to voice discontent as a result of hearing the protest and over throw of the Tunisian government. Police were heavy handed as is normal for Egyptian police. Government officials think they can suppress the protests by eliminating ways the protesters use to organize their rallies, by shutting internet and cellphone access (currently there is a bill ready to introduce in the Congress for an internet "kill switch" for the US). The Military was willing to allow the peaceful protesters to get the frustration out of their system, so they came in to stand between the police and protesters. Then the protest was hijacked by those who want to end all secular governments and install a religious government. Someone in the Government called in armed supporters to suppress the protesters. Mubarak gets a call from the US and feels as if he was being deserted and he resists which adds fuel to the fire.
Sidenote: The Military, at this time, seems to be the only group with any sense of self control.

What will result?

One of 2 things will happen.
1) The Military will step in, take over and have fairly  peaceful elections and have some semblance of a democracy.
2) An actual armed revolution will break out, with military weapons and "advisor's" coming in from other countries to organize and aid the violent protesters with the possible result of a theocracy being put in power and the peace treaty with Israel being broken.
There are other possibilities but I feel these are the 2 most likely

Could it affect us?

Yes, it could easily affect us. Much of the oil in the Middle East goes through the Suez Canal and if that is closed of any reason (civil war or by a new Egyptian Government) it would add over 6,000 miles to the oil carriers’ trips, by having to go around the tip of Africa. A short time in the 1950’s, the Suez Canal was closed during the Suez crisis, resulting in oil shortages throughout Europe, demand for oil since oil demand and use has grown exponentially, so possible shortage but most definitely price hikes.  (Drill baby, Drill). Next, if a theocracy takes over and declares war on Israel then we could easily be drawn into it. Yes, there are many different facts that would determine if we do get involved or not. But I don't have the time or space to get into it all.

There are other potential ramifications that could affect the US, but again wanting to limit the size of my reply here.
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02/04/2011 5:47 am

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Thoughtful analysis Cowboy!
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02/04/2011 7:05 am

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This is a story thats been caused manly by guess who? By us here in the US. Its a contagion thats spreading like wild fire and could be as big a bubble as housing its self. Few are following, but the numbers are growing thank god as I thought maybe I was going crazy. Its ethanol, politicians, and "big farmers" Not the small family farms we have known and loved in the past who raised their families on the farm. This is a very dangerous game were playing and a bubble if allowed to keep growing may doom us for decades. When were putting so much stress on economies and the people in poor nations. When 70-90% of your income has to go for food and have high long term unemployment somethings going to give. It won't be good, it will be slow and painful to everyone worldwide if this manmade (US) problem doesn't stop and stops soon. Its a laid out plan that few know of, few care to even listen, but the data doesn't lie.
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02/04/2011 9:21 pm

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Yep ... gas went up overnight to $3.05 a gallon from $2.97 in Kansas City.
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02/05/2011 6:51 am

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america and the west is partly to blame for much of the resentment in the region. it's the result of a policy that hearkens back to the cold war. back then, we didn't much care how dictatorial a government was, so long as they were anti-communist, and the same is true today, so long as they're anti-extremist. as long as the region is seen as "stable," and the oil flows out uninterrupted, and the suez canal stays open, then we have been more than willing to overlook the oppression and the wealth gaps in those countries. and not just overlook such things, but to actually prop up those governments. this is where most of the hatred towards america stems from. these people live in economic and political poverty, and they resent their own authoritarian governments, and even more so that outside forces are contributing to those governments staying in power.

and so we help enforce this status quo, and all of a sudden, once it all boils to the surface, many in the public are left feeling blindsided. i had no idea, many will say. and the reason many people had no idea is because our government has been silent on it for all these years. we talk a good game about promoting freedom and liberty around the world, but when the rubber meets the road, we're more than happy to ignore the absence of freedom and liberty, if doing so is politically and economically convenient to us.

so basically, the thing that frustrates me is the hypocritical nature of it all. if we want to be an empire, then i say let's do it up like rome, and simply take everything we want. but if we have this notion that america is a force of good in this world, and we want everyone to like us, then i think we should stick by our principles. and not just when it suits us, but even when it doesn't. why are we throwing money around to all these autocratic governments, without attaching some strings to it? why aren't we actively pushing for reforms from our "allies?"

personally, i think we should stop involving ourselves in internal politics around the world anyway. at least that way we'd know where we stand with everyone, and there wouldn't be billions of reasons for these countries to smile to our face, while stabbing us in the back. at least during the cold war we pretty much knew which countries did and didn't like us. but since the fall of the iron curtain, we've been trying to buy loyalty, and as a result, no one respects us anymore.
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