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TEHRAN/DUBAI (Reuters) - The U.S. Fifth Fleet said on Wednesday it would not allow any disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, after Iran threatened to stop ships moving through the world's most important oil route.

"Closing the Strait of Hormuz for Iran's armed forces is really easy ... or as Iranians say, it will be easier than drinking a glass of water," Iran's navy chief Habibollah Sayyari told Iran's English-language Press TV on Wednesday.

"But right now, we don't need to shut it ...," said Sayyari, who is leading 10 days of exercises in the Strait.

http://news.yahoo.com/iran-navy-chief-says-shutting-off-gulf-very-092339883.html

He's right about that last part at least.  They dont need to close the straight to do their damage.

First of all, Iran cant close it. They dont have the power to do so.  I'm speaking from experience here and not just boasting.  Iran does not have the firepower to close the straight if we dont want it closed.  The 5th fleet is more than capable of defending itself there.  And Iran knows it.

Thats why Sayyari slipped in that last bit like he did.  They dont need to close it.  He knows that all Iran has to do is mention the idea and oil prices will soar.  And I believe that's their goal.  They dont want a fight with us.  They want to pressure the West by hitting us economically.

Basically, on this issue at least, Iran plans to continue to irritate the west like a severe case of hemorrhoids.  Itchy, stinky, swollen and painful.  But not deadly.

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I read on an NPR article on the subject that despite Iran's efforts to inflate oil prices with their threat, prices have actually fallen due to Saudi claims that they would produce enough to offset any losses.  Things are tumultuous in Iran right now, I think they're making noise to try to distract their public from domestic issues (like the power struggle between the government and the religious institution).  So long as they don't make the same mistake Argentina did, I don't think this will lead to much.

EDIT

Correction, it was from a BBC article:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16348633
Iran's threats to close the strait have not flustered markets and oil prices actually fell after a senior Saudi oil official said that Gulf Arab nations were ready to offset any loss of Iranian crude.

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Originally Posted by Dennis Young:


First of all, Iran cant close it. They dont have the power to do so.  I'm speaking from experience here and not just boasting.  Iran does not have the firepower to close the straight if we dont want it closed.  The 5th fleet is more than capable of defending itself there.  And Iran knows it.

You're thinking of a classic ship-on-ship battle to close the strait tho, right? They don't have to have lots of hardware, all they need is 2-3 missiles. Take out or seriously damage a few big tankers, blame "rogue elements in the military" for firing them for deniability, and watch the oil companies scramble to pull their tankers out of the area in case more "rogue elements" fire more missiles. The US is in a lose-lose situation then: the economic damage will already have been done, and if they retaliate the Iranians will rally around their leaders in defiance of the "Great Satan" and the anti-government movement gets set back another few years.

And you don't need a lot of big hardware or modern technology to take out the US 5th fleet, you just need to be smart about it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002

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Originally Posted by Kieran Colfer:

Originally Posted by Dennis Young:


First of all, Iran cant close it. They dont have the power to do so.  I'm speaking from experience here and not just boasting.  Iran does not have the firepower to close the straight if we dont want it closed.  The 5th fleet is more than capable of defending itself there.  And Iran knows it.

You're thinking of a classic ship-on-ship battle to close the strait tho, right? They don't have to have lots of hardware, all they need is 2-3 missiles. Take out or seriously damage a few big tankers, blame "rogue elements in the military" for firing them for deniability, and watch the oil companies scramble to pull their tankers out of the area in case more "rogue elements" fire more missiles. The US is in a lose-lose situation then: the economic damage will already have been done, and if they retaliate the Iranians will rally around their leaders in defiance of the "Great Satan" and the anti-government movement gets set back another few years.

And you don't need a lot of big hardware or modern technology to take out the US 5th fleet, you just need to be smart about it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002

Interesting article, but I dont buy it for one second.  And I'm not actually talking ship vs ship combat.  I was considering missile as well as air to surface strikes.  And I still dont think they can close it.  In fact, I can almost guarantee it.  Your 2-3 missiles scenario  wouldnt be nearly enough to even hit our ships, much less sink them.  Even back in the '80s when I was in...with that technology, those missiles wouldnt have sunk our ship.  While they might get lucky and cause some damage to a ship, the straight would remain open.

2nd think to keep in mind is that it most likely wouldnt be the US in this alone.  The Saudis hate Iran's guts and have a very good reason to keep the straight open.  As do all the other OPEC nations.

3rd, I do believe there are at least somesane Iranians military officials out there.  And even they realize that the retribution they would face would be hellish.  Were they to do anywhere close to the amount of damage you suggest, they have to know we would end the Iranian problem once and for all.  D@mn the UN, and d@mn losing the Iranian people's support.  I think by now we can figure that we will never get the people's support in that part of the world.  People in the Arab world hate us anyway.  So retaliation for losing 20,000 troops would be of the highest priority.  

4th, dont you think this would give Israel a perfect opportunity to end an age old problem?  
Further, if they sink tankers, even Saudi has the capability to remove the tankers.  Believe me...I know.

As for economic damage...again, you make my point for me.  That is what this is all about.  Yes, tankers would flee and there would be much uncertainty, which would cause oil companies to panic and give them yet another reason to raise prices.  

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Bw man, I'm sorry if I came across as being a bit 'snippy'.  I dont truly mean to be.  I know I sometimes have an abrasive personality and I'm trying be better about it.  I apologize.

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Originally Posted by Dennis Young:

Interesting article, but I dont buy it for one second.  And I'm not actually talking ship vs ship combat.  I was considering missile as well as air to surface strikes.  And I still dont think they can close it.  In fact, I can almost guarantee it.  Your 2-3 missiles scenario  wouldnt be nearly enough to even hit our ships, much less sink them.  Even back in the '80s when I was in...with that technology, those missiles wouldnt have sunk our ship.  While they might get lucky and cause some damage to a ship, the straight would remain open.

Well, the point is that they don't have to close the straits to the 5th fleet, they want to close the straits to the oil tankers. So, they won't be going after the well-protected US warships, the first strike will be against the soft targets, the big crude carriers. take out 4 or 5 (or even 2 or 3) of those babies and the world markets will **** themselves. If the US retaliates, well, the damage is already done then.  

Bw man, I'm sorry if I came across as being a bit 'snippy'. I dont truly mean to be. I know I sometimes have an abrasive personality and I'm trying be better about it. I apologize.

No probs, you can have that as your new years resolution so :-P Nah, no offence taken, if you don't have a  thick skin anyway, you have no place trying to argue anything on the internet - I've had flame wars with people on youtube and various message boards, compared to them this place is the oxford debating society on prozac :-)

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You guys are my friends and I like discussing things here even if it does become passionate debate from time to time.  

I was thinking about your scenario later on last night.  I would imagine that if the US 5th fleet did move to open the straights, they would use satelite and drone technology and pinpoint Iranian airbases and missile sites.  So we'd probably be on the alert to destroy them if they even bothered to warm up the jets or missiles.

Probably.  But I dunno for sure.  Lol!

You're right about the tankers.  It would definitely disrupt the flow of oil for a period of time and wreak havoc with oil prices.  But interestingly, I think you may have already mentioned that oil prices are falling.  Wonder why given the threats?

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Originally Posted by Dennis Young:
You guys are my friends and I like discussing things here even if it does become passionate debate from time to time.  

I was thinking about your scenario later on last night.  I would imagine that if the US 5th fleet did move to open the straights, they would use satelite and drone technology and pinpoint Iranian airbases and missile sites.  So we'd probably be on the alert to destroy them if they even bothered to warm up the jets or missiles.

Probably.  But I dunno for sure.  Lol!

You're right about the tankers.  It would definitely disrupt the flow of oil for a period of time and wreak havoc with oil prices.  But interestingly, I think you may have already mentioned that oil prices are falling.  Wonder why given the threats?

From what I've read the Saudi's have stated that they can boost production to buffer any restrictions caused by Iran closing the strait.  While the Saudi's would benefit from the high prices if they didn't boost production, they apparently view crippling Iran as being more essential than profits.

I suspect that if the Iranians attach US or civilian ships we'll respond by not only engaging the Iranian navy but also simultaneously targeting Iranian bases and airstrips.  I think Iran is blowing hot air, I couldn't imagine them being dumb enough to bring the war to their own doorstep.  Keep in mind that these are the folks who've been fighting proxy wars against the US and Israel through Hezbollah, Hamas, and insurgency forces in Iraq; they don't seem to favor direct military confrontation.

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I think you're right.  Btw...I noticed gas prices had gone up about a nickle per gallon here.