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http://visiontoamerica.org/story/-budget-compromise-would-increase-deficit-from-129t-to-158t.html

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Congressional speaking, there are not enough votes to get any real cuts made.  This is the plain and simple truth.  All cuts must be agreed to by the Democrats, so the only thing the House Republicans can do is to make it appear that the Democrats are the ones that want to shut down the government if they do not get their way.  Posturing for public appearance sake is the only thing the Republicans can hope to accomplish, and that should be our expectation too.  Beyond that is fantasizing, because the votes are not there.

We honestly cannot expect any real cuts to be made until the Republicans have a veto proof majority in BOTH the House and Senate to override a Democrat president, or simple majorities in both the House and Senate and have a Republican president at a minimum.

As of now the only options the Republicans have are the continuing resolutions and temporary funding measures, or shutting the government down and being blamed for it .  All the Republicans can do is propose a temporary budget and get what concessions from the Democrats in the Senate and White House will make.  

Where the Republicans are falling short, is relentlessly pounding that message into the brains of the voters that the Democrats are the ones still wanting all the spending, while still fighting for as many cuts as they can get the Democrats to agree to.  They should be reminding the voters that to make real cuts requires Republican majorities in both bodies of Congress   They really cannot go for the shutdown just now because they have to get the Senate and Obama to go along with it.  That will be the same in the future, but the political posture will then be in favor of the Republicans, for they will be able to say that they tried to negotiate but the Democrats are the ones that insisted on shutting down the government.  

The budget bill for next year that Eric Cantor is working on is where the real cuts will be proposed.  That budget battle will be around September. (The budget year and the congressional year are not on the same time frame.)  Even then, the only realistic thing that the Republicans can be expected to accomplish, is to position the party as appearing to be accommodating to the the Democrats.  When the Cantor budget is passed in the House, then the Republicans can hold out for the massive cuts without compromise, and it will make the Democrats appear as the ones that are shutting down the government. For at that time, it will be the Republicans Constitutionally mandated duty to propose a budget, and they can say they have one.  It  then becomes a burden on the Senate to concur on it.  If the Senate fails, then it will fall back on the Democrats in the Senate and will make them appear to be the bogeyman.

Even then, the ONLY possibility of real cuts happening is for the Democrats caving so it won't appear they are shutting down the government.  IF they do allow serious cuts, it will divide their base and those affected will turn on the incumbent Democrats in the 2012 elections.  If they do not agree to major cuts, the blame will be squarely on the Democrats by the fiscally conservative Democrats and unaffiliated voters, and those fiscally conservative voters will vote Republican in 2012.

I do not believe the Republicans are waffling.  They are not in charge of enough of Congress in total, or the White House, so they can only do posturing for now.  

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This, my friend, is excellent. It is a far better analysis than anything I have seen on the subject of budget cuts since the election changed the odds a little. I will post a recommendation for others to read this on my wall.  I also notice that the forum has acknowledged your continuing presence. I am not really aware of the method used but you have now been upgraded from Newbie to Junior Member under your photo.

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It seems most are forgetting that the Democrats still control 2/3 of the budgetary equation.  

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Rex  excellent on your part  We can only apply the pressure on the left to cave so changes can be made for the better.  One small victory at a time I guess is the answer.

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Rex, Very very well put.