In an Article, Jason Andrews and Sanjay Basu, report use of a computerised model to estimate that the size of the cholera burden in Haiti this year, in the absence of new interventions, will be nearly 800 000 cases with more than 11 000 deaths — estimates that are substantially higher than those proposed by UN agencies. Importantly, the model also shows that a recent decline in cases of cholera is not the result of successful interventions currently being employed, but rather the natural course of the epidemic. The findings are discussed further in a Comment and Podcast.