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Originally Posted by Reefat Zaman Shourov:
আমারও মনে হচ্ছে মার্কেট পড়বে এবং ৫৩৮১ পর্যন্ত হয়তো যাবে । মজার ব্যাপার হলো আপাতত ৫৩৮১ এর পরে আর কোনো সাপোর্ট লাইন নেই। তাহলে যদি মার্কেট আরো পড়ে তাহলে নেক্সট সাপোর্ট লাইন কোথায় তা বুঝা যাবে কি করে ?

Amibroker এ ২০০৯ এর ডাটা ইনপুট দিয়ে দেখতে হবে। ৪৫০০ এর আশেপাশে সাপোর্ট পাওয়া যেতে পারে।

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Originally Posted by Reefat Zaman Shourov:

Originally Posted by S Alam Chy:
If even u presume something negative, again which is not confirmed,, is not better to refrain from making any comments,,which might put others in problem----if I m wrong in making this statement,,plz correct me.

I think according to conservatism principle it is better to comment because if the assumption became true then many people would be in a great trouble. So isn't it better to warn them before any fall comes even though it is not certain ? Another thing most of the stock market analysis specially Technical Analysis is based on assumption which becomes true in 90% cases. As share market is a psychological market and it has many other factors (like government interference and many others) 10% remains always uncertain. So for this 10% will we leave Technical Analysis ?

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index -302

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u r right taj bhai

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Originally Posted by Reefat Zaman Shourov:
আমারও মনে হচ্ছে মার্কেট পড়বে এবং ৫৩৮১ পর্যন্ত হয়তো যাবে । মজার ব্যাপার হলো আপাতত ৫৩৮১ এর পরে আর কোনো সাপোর্ট লাইন নেই। তাহলে যদি মার্কেট আরো পড়ে তাহলে নেক্সট সাপোর্ট লাইন কোথায় তা বুঝা যাবে কি করে ?

When you do not get support lines in daily chart,then check out your weekly and then monthly charts. You will get support lines. In fact,when we have big falls like the one we are having in index now,we should always go for higher time frames. Because in higher time frame,things are less chaotic and our analysis gets better and easier.

However,it is always better to not to go for normal support lines by drawing trend lines on charts. It is better to watch moving averages as support lines. Use five moving averages starting from 30 days ending to 200 days.

Also,use Fibonacci ratios when you see a big fall of index like we see now. For example,5000+/- is a good support zone for our index at the moment. So,we should watch it. Even though,I am still bearish about that zone. But it is worth watching different levels. Just in case!!

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Originally Posted by S Alam Chy:
If even u presume something negative, again which is not confirmed,, is not better to refrain from making any comments,,which might put others in problem----if I m wrong in making this statement,,plz correct me.

If someone depends on others's analysis and comments regarding their trade,then he shouldn't be trading.

Discussing the negative aspects is not at all bad thing. In fact,it is a good practice. When the market falls,it is always better to discuss about it. Again,when the market rises,it is helpful to discuss about it,too. You can't deny the negative side of something ;-)

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Originally Posted by Share Trader:

If someone depends on others's analysis and comments regarding their trade,then he shouldn't be trading.
Discussing the negative aspects is not at all bad thing. In fact,it is a good practice. When the market falls,it is always better to discuss about it. Again,when the market rises,it is helpful to discuss about it,too. You can't deny the negative side of something ;-)

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double bottom hoyeche...

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Originally Posted by Adv Kabir Sagor:
double bottom hoyeche...

It is not a perfect double bottom yet,though we can identify it as a small double bottom!! The significance of this pattern loses strength ,as all indicators are signaling downtrend!!!

One thing is very very interesting : when index is coming near 5500,GOV is trying to pull it up!!! Last time GOV injected money at this 5500 zone. This time,too,GOV is doing the same!!! GOV is not willing to let index go below this level!!!! Why? Time will answer. But at the moment index is at a crucial stage! Because if index breaks down from this level,well,we can expect more falls then :-(

Another thing is,even after a lot of push and inject of money,GOV and SEC are failing to convince traders about rise of index! You see,today during trade hour,after such a declaration of buying shares by GOV backed institutions,index is still struggling to go up! This shows how bearish traders are at the moment regarding our market!!

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DSE GEn INDEX is heading for creating another lower low. Tomorrow is very important day for those who wish to buy at lower price.

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a rokom koto din cholbe

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@ Taj Bhai
I have data from May 2008 !  Seems have to create the support line manually !
@ Share Trader Bhai
Weekly view works but it is saying after 5222 the next support line is in 3117 which is not realistic ! But if we put Fibonacci ration on weekly data then have a support line at 4923 after 5703 which can be realistic in some manner !
But i think between 5703 & 4923 there is another support line at 5381 which can be get from daily data and this line is a bit strong !
Market may turn around at 5381 but if this line breaks then in my opinion index will touch 4950-5000 point i guess !

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@ Taj Bhai
I have data from May 2008 !  Seems have to create the support line manually !
@ Share Trader Bhai
Weekly view works but it is saying after 5222 the next support line is in 3117 which is not realistic ! But if we put Fibonacci ration on weekly data then have a support line at 4923 after 5703 which can be realistic in some manner !
But i think between 5703 & 4923 there is another support line at 5381 which can be get from daily data and this line is a bit strong !
Market may turn around at 5381 but if this line breaks then in my opinion index will touch 4950-5000 point i guess !

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Originally Posted by Reefat Zaman Shourov:

@ Share Trader Bhai
Weekly view works but it is saying after 5222 the next support line is in 3117 which is not realistic ! But if we put Fibonacci ration on weekly data then have a support line at 4923 after 5703 which can be realistic in some manner !
But i think between 5703 & 4923 there is another support line at 5381 which can be get from daily data and this line is a bit strong !
Market may turn around at 5381 but if this line breaks then in my opinion index will touch 4950-5000 point i guess !

It is not clear to me how you are drawing those lines on charts.......Because in my weekly chart,the supports are at : 5400 and then 4800 and then 4000. So,Index should stop somewhere between 5200 to 4000 level!!!! I am using Weighted Moving Averages for determining support zones.

At the moment we are in a good support level,and market should not fall more from here.

I don't like to draw trendline,because it is subjective. This means a trader's own intentions come into play in drawing trendline in subjective situation!

Also,I don't consider specific number for drawing any conclusion. By this,I mean,I wouldn't consider 5000 point or 5200 or 4800 points to be the support. I would like to think in terms of ZONE. By this I mean I like to see probable levels,say from 5000 to 4500 or from 4500 to 4000,etc.

There is another very important point :

The supports that we see now are of 2009 or 2010. The question is : will those traders now start to buy at those support levels where they bought back in 2009 or 2010? Or,do they have money to buy?

We may need another level-a new level for index. By a new level,I mean Index might have to decide a level to stop its fall and establish itself without considering its past levels.

Back in 2008/August,I had a problem to decide how far index may fall,as it was not maintaining any support lines. Index stopped at 2500 level,which was not any significant support level. But I had to agree with that new level.......

Anyway,I use five WMA(moving averages) from 30 days to 300 days to determine my levels.  

Interestingly,the level we are now is a very important level. And Index must not go below 4000 starting from today's low-5453. But anything can happen,as this is a bearish market!!

The whole situation is quite chaotic now in the market! None of the analysis of TA and FA may prove accurate in such situation. Stocks price may fall unbelievably low. So we need time to find the bottom!!

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pattern is ok but this is bangladesh anything can happen...this week market could b little bit positive