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less than stimulating
05/18/2011 7:26 am

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Last week, economists Timothy Conley and Bill Dupor concluded that the stimulus package (The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 0r ARRA) shrank the economy even in the short run, destroying about 550,000 jobs overall.   (The stimulus saved or created 450,000 government jobs, but that was more than offset by the fact that the stimulus wiped out a million private-sector jobs).  As they noted in their study,

    “Our benchmark results suggest that the ARRA created/saved approximately 450 thousand state and local government jobs and destroyed/forestalled roughly one million private sector jobs. State and local government jobs were saved because ARRA funds were largely used to offset state revenue shortfalls and Medicaid increases rather than boost private sector employment. The majority of destroyed/forestalled jobs were in growth industries including health, education, professional and business services.”

The stimulus package was criticized by many other economics professors, like Harvard University’s Jeffrey Miron, Robert Barro and Martin Feldstein.  (Barro called it “the worst bill that has been put forward since the 1930s.”   Feldstein, who also criticized it, served as an economic advisor to Presidents Obama and Reagan).

Nobel Laureates like Gary Becker have also criticized the stimulus package.  Two hundred economists signed a statement publicly opposing the stimulus package in an ad published in The Washington Post and The New York Times.

While pushing the stimulus package through Congress, Obama cited claims by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) that it would save jobs in the short run, while ignoring the CBO’s own finding that the stimulus will actually shrink the economy over the long run, by exploding the national debt and crowding out private investment.   Obama also made the apocalyptic claim that the stimulus package was necessary to avert “irreversible decline,” but this claim was so incredible that it was not even peddled by his supporters in the media.

Much stimulus money has been wasted.  It has gone to prisoners and dead people, wasteful welfare spending, abandoned bridges to nowhere and unnecessary government buildings.  The stimulus subsidized foreign green jobs and wiped out jobs in America’s export sector.

The “'stimulus' is not the road to economic recovery.  It’s the problem, not the solution,” wrote Nobel Prize winning economist Vernon L. Smith.



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05/18/2011 8:21 am

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Of those 450,000 government jobs, how many were temporary Census jobs?
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05/18/2011 9:23 pm

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What a load of ****!  Who wrote the pathetic excuse for an article?  No where do they demonstrate how the stimulus bill would have "killed" private sector jobs.  While there was a lot of hiring of temp. public sector positions, much of the work (like roads, construction, etc) were contracted out to private sector companies.  More over, much of the money was invested in governmental project for which there would never have been any private sector investment.  While I wouldn't be surprised if there were jobs lost in fields not affected by the stimulus (home building, air traffic, computer engineering, etc), there is no logical way to pin that on the stimulus, but rather the recession.

"Much stimulus money has been wasted. It has gone to prisoners and dead people, wasteful welfare spending, abandoned bridges to nowhere and unnecessary government buildings. The stimulus subsidized foreign green jobs and wiped out jobs in America’s export sector. "

How has it gone to prisoners and dead people?  What kind of wasteful welfare (I'd guess the author would probably call any kind of welfare wasteful)?  How did it "subsidize foreign green jobs?"  How did it "wipe out jobs in America's export sector?"   All unsubstantiated claims.  By the way, the bride to nowhere that was cited was from way before Obama even considered running for office and has nothing to do with the ARRA.

The best argument made was that Nobel Prize winning economist Vernon L. Smith didn't like it, and thats still nothing more than an appeal to authority (argumentum ad potentiam): a logical fallacy.
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05/19/2011 11:28 am

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I dunno.  To me gas prices and food prices are the most accurate indicator of how our economy is doing,.  Right now a lot of us are having trouble paying the bills.  
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05/19/2011 11:29 am

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grr...another double-post.
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05/20/2011 7:52 am

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even if you want to toss out the numbers, by any metric you can use, the stimulus has been a collossal failure. it didn't meet any of its stated goals, and most of the money has gone to propping up public sector union employees. in fact, blue states received more of the stimulus money than red states did.  it sure as hell hasn't created or saved 3 million jobs. it sure as hell didn't fix our infrastructure. and it sure as hell cost a lot of money. the fact that, with all of the factors out there, there is still denial about this is almost humorous.
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05/20/2011 12:37 pm

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Originally Posted by Dødherre Mørktre:
even if you want to toss out the numbers, by any metric you can use, the stimulus has been a collossal failure. it didn't meet any of its stated goals, and most of the money has gone to propping up public sector union employees. in fact, blue states received more of the stimulus money than red states did.  it sure as hell hasn't created or saved 3 million jobs. it sure as hell didn't fix our infrastructure. and it sure as hell cost a lot of money. the fact that, with all of the factors out there, there is still denial about this is almost humorous.



From what I've seen in central California (a very conservative area), its gone a long way towards fixing our infrastructure.  I've seen the Tiger/ARRA signs along countless major roads and freeways that are finally being repaired after years of neglect.  If I remember correctly, some of that money was also put aside to help fund high speed rail projects, which will be a huge asset in public transportation (as they have been in Japan and Europe).  I don't know the numbers on how many jobs it saved, but in CA alone it must have given well over 100,000 people work who may or may not have had it otherwise.  The way I see it, thats that many more Americans who were able to  work to put food on the table and be able to pay rent.
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05/20/2011 8:56 pm

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must be great for california (a very much blue state) but i haven't seen one ARRA sign in florida yet. and don't even get me started on high speed rail again. if you'd like, i can go dig up some old posts on the issue, that might help you form a different outlook on that waste of money.
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05/21/2011 6:23 am

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I haven't seen much improvement in my state either.  

To me, the idea of improving our infrastructure is a noble goal.  But the only change (in Alabama) to come in our economy since Obama has taken office is higher gas prices, higher unemployment, more people on food stamps and Welfare.  Jobs have dried up.  Food prices are way higher here.  

I know we are a red state.  But wow!  I've just seen no improvement whatsoever.  
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