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07/03/2011 1:43 pm

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A "mini-deal" to extend the debt ceiling for the short term may be the answer for Republican lawmakers and President Obama to reach an agreement on raising the debt ceiling before the Aug. 2 deadline to avoid a government default on its loans.

President Bill Clinton offered up the suggestion during an interview Saturday night, and in the absence of any other agreement, at least one GOP lawmaker didn't outright dismiss it.

"The problem with a mini-deal is we have a maxi problem. And these -- the big problems -- aren't going to go away if you cut a mini-deal. All it does is delay the moment of truth. So I'd say better now than then," Sen. John Cornyn told "Fox News Sunday."

"But if we can't, we'll take savings we can get now, and we'll re-litigate as we get closer to election," said Cornyn, R-Texas.

Republicans refuse to eliminate tax deductions and subsidies that help businesses and individuals reduce their overall obligation to the government unless there's a drop in existing tax rates.

"I think the American people understand that raising taxes grows the size of the federal government. If there's one thing that I think they told us on November 2010 is that they want government to get smaller, not bigger," Cornyn said. "So, the only way to get government smaller, more rational, is to cut spending, not to raise taxes. So, I think we win that."

Democrats say loopholes for wealthy Americans and corporations are unfair tax breaks, and need to be scrapped so that higher income earners contribute more to the Treasury's coffers. (top 53% pay 100% of taxes already)

Clinton said since the GOP won't agree on increasing the revenue side of the government's accounting ledger, Obama should consider a "mini-deal" to give the two sides time to sort through the thicket of tax rates and deductions.

"I hope they will make a mini-deal," Clinton reportedly told The Atlantic. "There are some spending cuts they agree on ...and (President Obama) can take those and (get) an extension of the debt ceiling for six or eight months. I don't think you can agree to some mega-deal on their terms."


what on earth makes them think they'll have more success in the middle of the next election season, 6-8 months from now? and didn't we JUST go through the bush tax cuts debate, and the democrats agreed then that a down economy was no time to raise taxes?
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07/04/2011 2:11 am

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Mr. Cornyn's argument is irreconcilable with the facts.  He argues that by reducing taxes one reduces the size of government, however as we see the tax rate has generally gone down for the last couple decades, yet the government was grown under both parties.  The rate of taxes seems more directly related to the size of the debt than the size of government.  He also makes the assumption that the smaller a government the more rational it will become, however I don't see any logical basis for this.

As for the statement that only the top %53 pay taxes, as I payed several thousand to taxes last year either the statement is false or the state of the American economy is much worse than I ever imagines (I had a fairly meager income).
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07/04/2011 7:29 am

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Originally Posted by Bryant Platt:
Mr. Cornyn's argument is irreconcilable with the facts.  He argues that by reducing taxes one reduces the size of government, however as we see the tax rate has generally gone down for the last couple decades, yet the government was grown under both parties.  The rate of taxes seems more directly related to the size of the debt than the size of government.  He also makes the assumption that the smaller a government the more rational it will become, however I don't see any logical basis for this.

As for the statement that only the top %53 pay taxes, as I payed several thousand to taxes last year either the statement is false or the state of the American economy is much worse than I ever imagines (I had a fairly meager income).



47% of americans don't pay federal income taxes, because their returns offset what they paid in.


In 2009, roughly 47% of households, or 71 million, will not owe any federal income tax, according to estimates by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/30/pf/taxes/who_pays_taxes/index.htm
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07/04/2011 10:03 am

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Originally Posted by Bryant Platt:
The rate of taxes seems more directly related to the size of the debt than the size of government.



i don't see how you can separate the two. the size of the debt is a direct correlation to the size and cost of the government. the bigger the government, the more it costs to operate, and the greater the debt.

and while tax rates may be low, we clearly don't have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem.




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07/04/2011 11:05 am

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Originally Posted by Bryant Platt:
Mr. Cornyn's argument is irreconcilable with the facts.  He argues that by reducing taxes one reduces the size of government,



Well, not really, what he says is that you don't reduce government by raising taxes, the reverse (reducing taxes increases government) isn't mentioned, and doesn't necessarily make sense anyway. Reducing taxes lowers the government revenue which forces them to either (a) cut spending or (b) run a bigger deficit. These days, a) isn't a given as no-one will agree on where to cut them or how much.

To me, cutting taxes and cutting spending at the same time is a stupid idea, you do it wrong (which they will) and they cancel each other out and you just end up where you started money-wise.
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07/04/2011 12:25 pm

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Originally Posted by Kieran Colfer:

Originally Posted by Bryant Platt:
Mr. Cornyn's argument is irreconcilable with the facts.  He argues that by reducing taxes one reduces the size of government,



Well, not really, what he says is that you don't reduce government by raising taxes, the reverse (reducing taxes increases government) isn't mentioned, and doesn't necessarily make sense anyway. Reducing taxes lowers the government revenue which forces them to either (a) cut spending or (b) run a bigger deficit. These days, a) isn't a given as no-one will agree on where to cut them or how much.

To me, cutting taxes and cutting spending at the same time is a stupid idea, you do it wrong (which they will) and they cancel each other out and you just end up where you started money-wise.



not when you're trying to get an economy going. there's this perverse idea that more government spending equals a bustling economy, and that's just false. more government revenues equals less wealth in private hands, which equals less economic activity.
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07/04/2011 12:35 pm

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and i would have to ask miles, what DOES force less spending and less government? because that's what we need. more revenues? do you think that since we borrow 40 cents of every dollar the government spends, that the government needs to increase its revenues by 40%, and how would that affect this stagnant economy of ours? i mean if less revenues doesn't force less spending, what will? anything?
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07/04/2011 12:51 pm

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Originally Posted by Dødherre Mørktre:

Originally Posted by Bryant Platt:
Mr. Cornyn's argument is irreconcilable with the facts.  He argues that by reducing taxes one reduces the size of government, however as we see the tax rate has generally gone down for the last couple decades, yet the government was grown under both parties.  The rate of taxes seems more directly related to the size of the debt than the size of government.  He also makes the assumption that the smaller a government the more rational it will become, however I don't see any logical basis for this.

As for the statement that only the top %53 pay taxes, as I payed several thousand to taxes last year either the statement is false or the state of the American economy is much worse than I ever imagines (I had a fairly meager income).



47% of americans don't pay federal income taxes, because their returns offset what they paid in.


In 2009, roughly 47% of households, or 71 million, will not owe any federal income tax, according to estimates by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/30/pf/taxes/who_pays_taxes/index.htm



Thats strange, because I made in the low 20's, paid several thousand in taxes, and only saw about 100 come back.  Perhaps I just suck at filing my return...
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07/04/2011 1:01 pm

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Originally Posted by Dødherre Mørktre:

Originally Posted by Bryant Platt:
The rate of taxes seems more directly related to the size of the debt than the size of government.



i don't see how you can separate the two. the size of the debt is a direct correlation to the size and cost of the government. the bigger the government, the more it costs to operate, and the greater the debt.

and while tax rates may be low, we clearly don't have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem.



How does revenue/spending normalize against population growth and inflation?  Something from the Heritage Foundations rallying against government spending seems so insincere.


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07/04/2011 2:28 pm

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Originally Posted by Dødherre Mørktre:
and i would have to ask miles, what DOES force less spending and less government? because that's what we need. more revenues? do you think that since we borrow 40 cents of every dollar the government spends, that the government needs to increase its revenues by 40%, and how would that affect this stagnant economy of ours? i mean if less revenues doesn't force less spending, what will? anything?



I never said that cutting taxes wouldn't force spending cuts, I said that it wasn't a given. You seem to be looking at it though the prism of "smaller government, smaller government" which is a good and laudable aim but is not the be-all and end-all, whereas I'm looking at it from the point of view of a country with a debt/GDP ratio of 99% which has to pay off €15 billion in loans over the next 4 years (which is pocket change to ye, but considering our govt's tax revenue for this year is forecast at €18bn....). So, if your only aim is to reduce the size of the government, then you can easily cut taxes to force spending cuts. If your aim is to drop the deficit however, then cutting the tax take by $100bn and reducing spending by $100bn gives you a net deficit reduction of...zero.  

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07/05/2011 5:53 am

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Originally Posted by Kieran Colfer:

Originally Posted by Dødherre Mørktre:
and i would have to ask miles, what DOES force less spending and less government? because that's what we need. more revenues? do you think that since we borrow 40 cents of every dollar the government spends, that the government needs to increase its revenues by 40%, and how would that affect this stagnant economy of ours? i mean if less revenues doesn't force less spending, what will? anything?



I never said that cutting taxes wouldn't force spending cuts, I said that it wasn't a given. You seem to be looking at it though the prism of "smaller government, smaller government" which is a good and laudable aim but is not the be-all and end-all, whereas I'm looking at it from the point of view of a country with a debt/GDP ratio of 99% which has to pay off €15 billion in loans over the next 4 years (which is pocket change to ye, but considering our govt's tax revenue for this year is forecast at €18bn....). So, if your only aim is to reduce the size of the government, then you can easily cut taxes to force spending cuts. If your aim is to drop the deficit however, then cutting the tax take by $100bn and reducing spending by $100bn gives you a net deficit reduction of...zero.  



and what if i want both? tough ****? lol
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07/05/2011 5:54 am

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and i would put it this way. if the gov take in $2 trillion annually (as it is now) then spending should be the same. i have a hard time believing that any extra revenues would actually go toward paying down our debt, because it never has before. our politicians are too addicted to spending
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07/05/2011 8:37 am

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Originally Posted by Dødherre Mørktre:



and what if i want both? tough ****? lol



Well, you can have both, you just have to make sure the difference between the savings made by the spending cuts and the reduced revenue caused by the tax cuts is a positive one, and use that to pay off the debt.

Problem is, you'd need a few things first:

1) Two parties who are actually serious about reining in spending and reducing the deficit, instead of just paying it lip-service  to score cheap points off the other side to give them an advantage in the next election (the tea partiers may be serious about shrinking government, but you really think that govt would shrink if the republicans win in 2012?)

2) Two parties who agree to cut down on the overblown rhetoric and concentrate on the facts, and who also agree to not just look at things though their narrow ideological prisms and consider things that might be considered "heresy" to the faithful, such as "trickle down economics doesn't always work" and "it's ok for rich people to pay slightly less tax, so long as they pay it".

3) Preferably, a plan for the cuts drawn up by an external 3rd party to avoid the partisan battles. This plan should be equitable and fair to all, and should concentrate on removing the government bureaucratic bloat while leaving the front-line services that people actually use/rely on as intact as possible.  

4) Politicians on all sides to realise and accept that the adjustments will be painful and may not very popular in their constituencies, but they have to avoid grandstanding and obstructionism just because it looks good at home.

5) An act of congress that states that ALL savings made by the plan go to cutting down the debt and don't get siphoned off somewhere else in earmarks/pork barrel spending/enronomic accounting etc.  

So what do you think the chances of all that happening are? ;-P  
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07/05/2011 9:13 am

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Originally Posted by Kieran Colfer:

Well, you can have both, you just have to make sure the difference between the savings made by the spending cuts and the reduced revenue caused by the tax cuts is a positive one, and use that to pay off the debt.

well, miles, i don't agree that tax cuts necessarily equals less revenues.

"First, back in the 1920s, Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon pushed Congress to enact a series of tax cuts. The U.S. dropped the top marginal income-tax rate from 73 percent to 25 percent. Tax receipts from the wealthiest Americans rose. According to Treasury data, income taxes paid by Americans making more than $100,000 per year increased from $302 million to $714 million between 1922 and 1928, with the rich's share of income taxes paid rising from 35 to 61 percent.

Second, Kennedy-era income tax cuts brought the top marginal rate from an eye-watering 91 percent down to a still-eye-watering 70 percent in 1964. The wealthiest earners paid more tax after the tax cut, some say, even though the rate dropped 21 percentage points. An analysis by Laffer showed, for instance, that in 1965 people making more than $100,000 a year paid $3.76 billion in taxes, versus the $2.1 billion forecast under the higher rate. A few economists say that Ronald Reagan's income-tax cuts, which dropped the top bracket's rate to 50 percent, had a similar effect. Berkeley economist Brad DeLong, for instance, writes, "Arthur Laffer is probably right at the top end: reducing the top tax rate from 70 percent to 50 percent is probably a revenue gainer and surely not much of a loser."

Third, we look abroad. In the 1990s, Ireland's parliament enacted legislation that took certain corporate income tax rates down to 12.5 percent, one of the lowest rates on earth. Receipts climbed. The country, in its "Celtic Tiger" boom period, rapidly became richer. Corporate tax revenues jumped from less than 2 percent of GDP to more than 3 percent of GDP.

In all three cases, the tax cuts likely helped to increase tax receipts. How do lower taxes raise the amount the government takes in? Three answers are commonly given. First, tax cuts encourage businesses and individuals to be more honest about their earnings. Rather than hiding income, taxpayers just fess up and pay their share. Second, lower taxes encourage businesses and individuals to move money from lower-productivity, tax-free investments and shelters to more productive, taxable investments. Third, most importantly, perhaps, tax cuts goose growth. The government might be taking a smaller piece of the pie, but the tax cuts make the pie bigger. (In Ireland's case, of course, there's a fourth: The country became a kind of tax haven.)

The problem, according to most economists, is that Republicans now apply that dogma to all taxes, in all situations.

Monetary policy, government spending, and the business cycle also have a major impact."


http://www.slate.com/id/2297513/

so i would say that we need to spread the tax burden out a bit. sure, the rich should pay the greatest percentage, but this is already the case. you could confiscate all of the wealth of the top income earners, and still not pay off the debt or finance the government. and these are the people who actually create wealth in our economy. the government has already figured out that you can't tax the wealthy enough, which is why many liberals are looking at a VAT tax on top of the income taxes, which i think is a bad idea.

this is why i think we need to go to either a consumption tax, or a flat tax. since the wealthy have more money, they buy more stuff, which means they would still pay more into the system than those who aren't wealthy. a flat tax (meaning that everyone pays the same percentage) would also mean that the wealthy would overall put a greater amount into the system, but it also taps into the lower and middle class. i mean no one wants to say you're taxing the lower and middle classes more, but when half the country doesn't pay into the system at all, something has to change.


Problem is, you'd need a few things first:

1) Two parties who are actually serious about reining in spending and reducing the deficit, instead of just paying it lip-service  to score cheap points off the other side to give them an advantage in the next election (the tea partiers may be serious about shrinking government, but you really think that govt would shrink if the republicans win in 2012?)

if the constituents of the republican party (and the tea party) continue to apply pressure, then yes. this is the main difference between the republicans and the democrats. the republicans actually have a base that's committed to this. more committed than our reps. but our politicians aren't going to lead us out of this. it just isn't in their nature. the people have to lead the politicians.

2) Two parties who agree to cut down on the overblown rhetoric and concentrate on the facts, and who also agree to not just look at things though their narrow ideological prisms and consider things that might be considered "heresy" to the faithful, such as "trickle down economics doesn't always work" and "it's ok for rich people to pay slightly less tax, so long as they pay it".

well, miles, i mean...who is it that uses scare tactics and rhetoric the most? i mean who's making commercials about republicans throwing granny off a cliff? who's misrepresenting the facts, claiming that the republicans want to get rid of social security and medicare (which i just recently saw in a commercial)?

i mean every time we get into an issue with budget cutting, it is the democrats who stand in the way. i mean it's just not in their DNA to cut spending. it goes against everything they believe in. the only kind of scare tactics used by the republicans in this regard, is them saying we're going to go belly up if we don't change things, which is true.


3) Preferably, a plan for the cuts drawn up by an external 3rd party to avoid the partisan battles. This plan should be equitable and fair to all, and should concentrate on removing the government bureaucratic bloat while leaving the front-line services that people actually use/rely on as intact as possible.  

similar to the president's own budget commission, which he ignored?

4) Politicians on all sides to realise and accept that the adjustments will be painful and may not very popular in their constituencies, but they have to avoid grandstanding and obstructionism just because it looks good at home.

never happen

5) An act of congress that states that ALL savings made by the plan go to cutting down the debt and don't get siphoned off somewhere else in earmarks/pork barrel spending/enronomic accounting etc.  

good idea


So what do you think the chances of all that happening are? ;-P  

  

i think more than anything, we need a balanced budget amendment to the constitution. that's really the only way to FORCE fiscal responsibility, and force the government to prioritize it's spending, which it hasn't had to do in decades.
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07/05/2011 9:43 am

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How much further can President Obama push the debt negations?

With the deadline fast approaching for a deal on Obama’s request for an increase in the federal government’s $14.3 trillion credit limit – Democrats have set July 22 as a target in order to give Congress time to digest the package and avoid any disruptions to federal cash flows – pressure is building on the president to accept the agreement already reached for approximately $1.4 trillion in new deficit spending in exchange for the same amount of cuts over the next five years.

Over the weekend, former President Bill Clinton at the Aspen Ideas Festival urged Obama to accept a “mini deal” to stave off a fiscal crisis and then return to the same issues later. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, on “FOX News Sunday” expressed openness to a short-term agreement.

The goal has been an increase of more than $2 trillion, enough to last through the next election. But talks broke down two weeks ago, still considerably short of the target number. Republicans walked away from the talks over Democratic insistence that tax increases be added to the mix, and Democrats went on the attack.

Democrats, led by Obama, went on a class-warfare blitz last week, demanding that Republicans yield on resentment-building exemptions for big corporations – private jets and oil inventories. The sums involved are smallish, and Democrats have argued that it is the least that corporate plutocrats can do.

But there have all along been two larger, broader tax increases behind the scenes, as the Wall Street Journal outlines today.

One would decrease tax exemptions on charitable giving for the target group in the overall Obama tax strategy – those families that earn more than $250,000 and individuals who make more than $200,000 – from 35 percent of the value of gifts to 28 percent. The Journal reports that if giving didn’t drop as a result of the new taxes, it would mean $290 billion in new tax payments over the next decade.

This has been a long-sought hike for the Obama economic team. It was part of the first budget proposal from the administration, but high anxiety from charitable groups caused Democrats to abandon the plan.

The second big proposed increase would take as much as $60 billion out of corporate coffers over the next ten years. The president wants to take away the ability of companies to pay taxes on inventories based on current market prices, not the price at which they purchased the items.

The law currently allows companies to offset commodity price disruptions or falling prices for their products, a practice the White House seeks to end.

Most Republicans are flatly opposed to either of these two broad tax increases, but by tying these two big-ticket items to the more sound-bite friendly items about Gulfstream jets and oil tycoons, Democrats are hoping that they can push through the more controversial items.

Obama has also suggested that another way to get to the $2 trillion figure – and get him past Election Day without repeating this process – would be to cut the payments to Medicare and Medicaid providers. The ideas are in furtherance of existing goals for overhauling the programs inside the president’s national health care law, but could be counted as new savings in the debt deal.

Republicans have called for structural changes to the programs, like increased eligibility ages and means testing for Medicare and giving states more authority over spending on Medicaid.

As the debt deadline draws nearer, the question for Obama is how far he is willing to push to get enough borrowing power to cover the rest of his term.
A major deal that sorts out the tax code and overhauls entitlements seems most unlikely in the next two weeks, so Obama may be forced to accept a symbolic victory on a marginal issue – like the $2 billion to be extracted from companies by lengthening the time over which they are allowed to depreciate the cost of their corporate jets – and prepare for another round of bargaining.

As much as Obama doesn’t want to go through this ordeal again, he also knows that the weakening economy would suffer more if he skates too close to the edge. Investors and capitalists would prefer long-term stability, but if a grand bargain were not possible, they would rather see speedy resolution, not brinksmanship.

Clinton’s point is that there’s no sense in waiting to take less if you know you can’t get more. The political wisdom is unassailable: a deal helps the economy and the better the economy the better Obama’s chances of reelection.

Every billion in new borrowing the president can wring out of Congress puts the president closer to Election Day, but every day he keeps negotiating deepens anxieties about a real impasse.

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