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During up trend almost 75% of total stocks goes up. So, majority of the investors are at profit. Very nice happy time. But when the market is down trend, almost 75% of stocks goes down. In worst case, all goes down. Majority are at loss. Very painful.

So, in which market we should invest ? Up trending market of course, because everything goes up. So, before investing, we need to see, is it up or down trend market ?

But the problem is that it is very difficult to identify at the early stage of a market reversal from down trend. Buy the time the market has confirmed bullinshness, late comers have already missed out 25% of market bullish move. For example, Deltalife, EHL, NHFIL, ILFSL, Midasfin, Lankabangla, Islamifin, Jamuna oil, etc all gained 20-31% last week. Can you believe that ?

So, should we invest fresh on next Sunday ? The market showed strength last week and probrbly going to make new high on next trading day . That will be the sign of short term bullish market before budget and we can buy ahead of probable market reversal . In considering risk-reward ratio, it is probabley the time to show courage and go for fresh investment who are still waiting with cash. You will also find that lot of good news are flooding now a days.

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i feel it risky. fresh investnent may be better after a correction.

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@ Junior member
I agree on your view. I tried many a times to buy on pull back after market correction but failed. Problem is the psychological and mental. When market goes down it gives a feeling that market is going to make Index 4500. After a correction when it strat moving upward it gives again a feel that it may be a short term rally and may fall again after 2 or 3 updays to resume down trend. That symptoms has kept me long time away from the market. But the courageous persons who are buying at every new low are making money.  I thought, I would buy on new low this time. But, it reversed from making near to double bottom. I didnot get an opportunity to enter.  It seems that timing the market is impossible.

now, coming to your point. What if the market continues to go up ? A suitable entry to the discounted underpriced shares may be missed. Again, according to your prediction, if the market start heading lower, there is a chance of potential loss exists. Now, how to find the solution of this dilemma ? The best solution or perfect time for investing is to wait for a market bullish move. I mean to wait for all short term moving averages to go above the long term moving averages or the market should make higher high. But waiting to that time may be too late if the institutional investors eat up all at low prices.

Anyway, your dicission may be correct.   But, my decission is to go long after 1 hour observance of the Sundays market move. If the market is not heading lower, It will give me an additional confidence to go all out. I have waited too long. But this time I want to fight the market rather to stay at side lines.  After all investment is a risky affairs. The greater the risk, the larger the profit.

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আমার মনে হয়, আপনি বাজারে ঢুকতে পারেন।
কিছু স্টক আছে, যেগুলো লাভ-ক্ষতি দুটোই বেশি হয়, আবার কিছু আছে বাজার পড়তি থাকলেও, এসবের দাম তেমন কমে না, আবার বাজার বাড়লে, এসব খুব বেশি বাড়ে না। চিন্তাভাবনা করে মাঠে নেমে পড়ুন। মাঠে থাকলেই, মাঠের পরিস্থিতি ভালো বুঝা যায়।

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শনিবার ভালো করে বাজার বুঝার চেষ্টা করুন। রবিবার কি হতে পারে, তার একটা ধারণা নিন। এরপর রবিবার বাজার যদি আপনার ধারণা মোতাবেক হয়, তবে নেমে পড়ুন।

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@Arshad Syed

Very difficult to predict our market. this market has irritated me many a times by putting me on wrong side. You see, we all goes for buying making the price halted and again on next day we all start selling together pulling down 7% profit to a double the loss.  I am afraid of  over enthusiastic and panic stricken people. Any way, thanx for your comment.

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মার্কেট-এর গতি নিশ্চিত হতে আরো কযেকদিন অপেক্ষা করতে হতে পারে কারণ গতকাল অর্থমন্ত্রী মহোদয় বরাবরের মত নিশ্চিত করেছেন কালো টাকা সাদা হবার সম্ভাবনা নাই এমনকি বোদ্ধারা কর্পরেট tax না কমানোরও পক্ষে --- এসব মিলিয়ে budget পর্যন্ত অপেক্ষা করতে হতে পারে , আবার কোনো  কোনো  সাংবাদিক/TV Channel, share মার্কেট-এ বাংলাদেশ bank-এর আর্থিক সহযোগিতা কিংবা এগিয়ে আসার সমালোচনা করেছে, তাদের মতে আস্তে আস্তে হলেও share মার্কেট তার নিজস্ব গতিতে এগুলে ভিত্তি শক্ত হয়ে উঠবে --এতে আবার বড় ধস-এর সম্ভাবনা থাকবেনা.  তবে আশার কথা, মার্কেট এই সকল ধকল মোকাবেলা করতে গিয়ে একটু correction হলেও খুব বেশি down হবার সম্ভাবনা নেই , because by this time , we have got the bottom of it ----good luck .

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i said about a correction,not a new low. market er shob news valo thakleo correction ta hobe. because this time below 5500  market index stayed 6 days. jara she shomoy kinesilo tader shobari profit ja hoise tara ta budget porjonto hold korar risk nibena. they defenitely will take their profit. so market correction hoe 5500 er kasakasi ashte pare..that will be good time for entry.(my own calculation with the help of elliot wave).
ami nijeo 5300 index a portfolio load koresilam and 5800 te offload koresi.waiting for index to come close to 5500 to invest again.

Regards
Tareq
student of cse,4th year,Buet