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Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's initial refusal to resign surprised his aides, angered the White House, enraged Cairo's legions of protesters and pushed the country closer to chaos, senior American officials told the Washington Post.


The officials said that within hours of Mubarak's speech, in which he appeared determined to cling to office, Egyptian army officials confronted the discredited president with an ultimatum: Step down voluntarily, or be forced out.

According to the Washington Post's report, published Saturday, the likelihood of Mubarak's departure alternately rose and dipped as US military officers and diplomats "quietly worked with their Egyptian counterparts in a search for peaceful resolution to the country's worst unrest in six decades."


By midweek, the report said, senior military and civilian leaders reached an apparent agreement with Mubarak on some form of power transfer. Communication between top American and Egyptian officials had become increasingly sporadic early this week as Mubarak's deputies complained publicly about US interference in Cairo's affairs. But then, according to the Washington Post, US intelligence and military officials began to learn details of the plan by Egyptian military leaders - something between a "negotiated exit and a soft coup d'etat - to relieve Mubarak of most, if not all, of his powers."



The plan, officials told the Washington Post, went into effect Thursday with announcements in Cairo to pro-democracy demonstrators that their key demands were about to be met. A rare meeting was convened of Egypt's Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, and afterward a military spokesman released a communiqué that seemed to affirm the army's control over the government.

Hours later in Washington, CIA Director Leon told the House Intelligence Committee there was a "strong likelihood that Mubarak may step down this evening," according to the report.



At 10 pm (Cairo time) Mubarak said in a nationally televised address that he would transfer some of his duties to Vice President Omar Suleiman but offered no hint of stepping down.



US officials and Middle East experts who analyzed the speech said it was a case of extraordinary miscalculation on Mubarak's part. "It was a public relations disaster," Daniel Kurtzer, a former US ambassador to Egypt, told the Washington Post.


A US government official told the newspaper that shortly after the speech, which was described by some American officials as bordering on delusional, "support for Mubarak from (the) military dropped precipitously.

"The military had been willing - with the right tone in the speech - to wait and see how it played out," the official was quoted by the Washington Post as saying. "They didn't like what they saw."



According to the report, even Suleiman, Mubarak's longtime intelligence chief, joined ranks with military leaders late Thursday. "He had been trying to walk a fine line between retaining support for Mubarak while trying to infuse common sense into the equation," the US official told the Washington Post. "By the end of the day, it was clear the situation was no longer tenable."



Mubarak was told Friday that he must step down, and within hours, he was on his way to the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh.


Another issue which remains unclear is the relationship between the army council, headed by Defense Minster Hussein Tantawi, and the man who is supposedly the number two man in the civilian government, Vice-President Omar Suleiman.

We're talking about the strongest figures in the Mubarak regime. Both of them were perceived as potential candidates to replace the president. If on January 29, 4 days after the beginning of the riots, Suleiman appeared to be the strongest person in Egypt, chosen to inherit the presidency with his appointment to vice-president and receipt of some of Mubarak's powers on Thursday, it would seem that there has now been a reversal in their relative positions, and Tantawi, as chief of the armed forces, has become the dominant figure in the country.

Tantawi, aged 76, is considered a war hero in Egypt for having received a medal for his role as commander of an army battalion during the 1973 Yom Kippur War in the infamous battles in the Sinai. In the last few years he developed excellent connections with the defense establishment in Israel, and every sitting Israeli Defense Minister in the last several years has met with him on more than one occasion.

i thought it was fishy that less than 24 hours after saying he wouldn't resign, that there were announcements he had called it quits.

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Yes...I still don't quite believe that he's "stepped" down as they say.  Leaders who have had power will not just "walk away" without so much as giving their last ditch effort.  Sure makes me wonder if the military is even going to be a solution to what the Egyptian people want.  My guess is that although he's no longer in power...he still has some "say" as to what the military is going to do.  I guess only time will play out exactly what will happen.  Once again, the United States gets involved in something that doesn't affect them at all.  Why are we EVERYWHERE but where we SHOULD BE???

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I suspect this was all about saving face and details about Mubaraks money.  His pride was bruised.  Plus he likely wanted to make sure he could get away with as much of the money he socked away as he could.  (Reputedly in the billions).  Perhaps he was also trying tof ind a country who will take him in.

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i don't think this is going to turn out well. it just came across the wires that the egyptian military has dissolved the parliament, and suspended the constitution. out of the frying pan and into the fire.

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Yep.  I thought I heard them say they were going to respect the treaties though.  But who knows?  This is why I didnt know whether to cheer the revolution or not.

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Originally Posted by Dennis Young:
I suspect this was all about saving face and details about Mubaraks money.  His pride was bruised.  Plus he likely wanted to make sure he could get away with as much of the money he socked away as he could.

Well, is sort of too bad for him then that the Swiss have apparently frozen all his bank accounts, and those of all his officials.....

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Well, one possibility for Egypt is that it could end up with a political system like Turkey's: nominally a democratic system with free elections etc, but where the army is always in the background ready to step in at any time to "preserve the secularism" of the government, and the politicians know this.  Given the fact that so many of their soldiers have directly or indirectly shown their support for the regime change, the top generals would hopefully be hesitant in trying to crack down and sieze power for good, in case there were a "counter-coup".

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i guess we'll have to see if they stick true to their word, and relinquish power in 6 months.

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I heard they dissolved Parliament yesterday.  Dont know if thats good or bad.

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Originally Posted by Dennis Young:
I heard they dissolved Parliament yesterday.  Dont know if thats good or bad.

the egyptians seem to think all of it's good.